Investment Publications
Presentation on Asset Allocation to Intermediaries in Salisbury
On Wednesday 12th November 2008
Bulletin - The Credit Crisis Part II
While western financial and legislative authorities strive to contain potentially excruciating outcomes from the banking crisis, what have we been doing?
In our view the economic impact of the crisis is initially deflationary; we also believe that the danger of shorter term inflation is past. Thus interest rates in the UK and elsewhere should begin to fall soon, and they should continue falling for some time. We should not be surprised if they reach 3½% by mid-2009.
The Bail-Out
A summary of what the $700 billion bail-out is, putting it into place, effect upon banks and the likely impact upon the wider economy
"The bail-out reduces the probability of a deflationary spiral. Inflation becomes a risk only if the increase in money supply is accompanied by an acceleration in monetary velocity, which seems improbable given the fact that the economies remain highly leveraged, and that banking rules will become tougher."
Bulletin - The Credit Crisis
In the US Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest American mortgage institutions, have been nationalised; Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank, has failed; Merrill Lynch has been sold to Bank of America; and AIG, one of the world’s largest insurance companies, has been kept afloat by a credit line from the Federal Reserve, and the US Treasury has taken an 80% stake in exchange. In the UK our largest mortgage provider, HBOS, is believed to be in merger talks with Lloyds TSB. A few months ago Northern Rock was nationalised.
August 2008 - GBIM Newsletter
The Path of Inflation and Interest Rates in the UK
The Bank of England’s mission is to ensure that inflation meets its target of 2% in the medium term. For many years domestically derived price increases exceeded this level, but the overall inflation figures remained acceptable as the prices of many imports fell consistently.
Read more (PDF)...Note: The factsheets and commentary provided above deal with historical views or positions held by GBIM for its clients and are not investment recommendations. You should consult your investment manager before acting on any of the foregoing information.